Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2018
Issued: 28 Sep 2018
For October 2018, above-normal temperature is favoured over many parts of Southeast Asia.
All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) provide consistent outlook for above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of the ASEAN region, except for northern Myanmar where there is no dominant tercile. The spatial extent and magnitude of the likelihood for above-normal temperature conditions differ across the different models. In particularly over the equatorial region, the likelihood for above-normal temperature is higher for NCEP CFSv2 than the ECMWF or the UK Met Office models.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2018.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for October 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.