Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2018

Issued: 31 Oct 2018

For November 2018, above-normal temperature is favoured over many parts of Southeast Asia.

All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) provide a consistent outlook for above-normal temperature over most parts of the ASEAN region, except for northern Myanmar and the Philippines. There is no dominant tercile for northern Myanmar based on the ECMWF and UK Met Office models, while the three models disagree about the dominant tercile for the Philippines. The magnitude of the likelihood for above-normal temperature is higher for NCEP CFSv2 than the ECMWF and the UK Met Office models, consistent with previous months’ outlooks.

Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2018.
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for November 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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