Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: December 2018
Issued: 30 Nov 2018
For December 2018, above-normal temperature is favoured over many parts of Southeast Asia.
All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) provide a consistent outlook for above-normal temperature over most parts of the ASEAN region, except for parts of Myanmar, northern Laos, northern Vietnam, and the Philippines. For these four regions, temperature is predicted to be near-normal to above-normal. Overall, the magnitude of the likelihood for above-normal temperature is higher for NCEP CFSv2 than the ECMWF and the UK Met Office models, consistent with previous months’ outlooks.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for December 2018.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for December 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for December 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.