Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2019

Issued: 27 Dec 2018

For January 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over many parts of Southeast Asia.

All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) provide consistent outlook for above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of the ASEAN region, but models differ significantly in the probabilities of above-normal temperature over the northern parts of Continental Southeast Asia. In general, the magnitudes of the likelihood for above-normal temperature are higher for NCEP CFSv2 than the ECMWF and the UK Met Office models and consistent with previous months’ outlooks.

Over land across many parts of the ASEAN region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good% except for Continental Southeast Asia where the skill is only low to moderate.

ncep_temp_t2m_TS_1 
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2019.
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for January 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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