Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: February 2019

Issued: 28 Jan 2019

For February 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most of Southeast Asia.

All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) provide consistent outlook for above-normal temperature over most parts of the ASEAN region for February, but models differ significantly in the probabilities of above-normal temperature over Myanmar and the Philippines. In general, the magnitudes of the likelihood for above-normal temperature are higher for NCEP CFSv2 than the ECMWF and the UK Met Office models and are consistent with previous months’ outlooks.

Over most of Southeast Asia, the models’ skill for predicting above normal temperature is generally very good, except for some eastern parts of the region where the skill is only low to moderate.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2019.
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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