Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: March 2019
Issued: 28 Feb 2019
For March 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most of Southeast Asia, except for the northwestern corner of the region, where no tercile category dominates.
All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office – predict above-normal temperature over most parts of Southeast Asia for March (Figures 1-3), except over the northwestern corner of Southeast Asia where models do not agree on the dominant tercile category.
Over most of Southeast Asia, the models’ skill for predicting above normal temperature is generally very good, except for some eastern parts of Indonesia, as well as Thailand and Myanmar where the skill is only low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for March 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for March 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for March 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.