Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: April 2019
Issued: 29 Mar 2019
For April 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia.
For April 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office provide consistent outlook for above-normal temperature over most parts of the Southeast Asia (Figures 1-3), except over Myanmar and the south-eastern parts of the Philippines where models do not agree on the dominant tercile category.
Over most of parts of Southeast Asia, the models’ skill scores for predicting above-normal temperature is generally very good, except for some north-western parts of Myanmar where the skill is only low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for April 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for April 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for April 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.