Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: May 2019
Issued: 29 Apr 2019
For May 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia.
For May 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office predict above-normal temperature over most parts of the Southeast Asia (Figures 1-3), except over northern Myanmar and parts of the eastern Maritime Continent, where the ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict above-normal temperature or no dominant tercile category.
Over most parts of Southeast Asia, the models’ skill scores for predicting above-normal temperature is generally very good, except for northern parts of Myanmar where the skill is only low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for May 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for May 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for May 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.