Temperature

For May 2023, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, with higher chance over the eastern Maritime Continent, as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). Over most parts of the western and southern Maritime Continent, the NCEP and ECMWF models predict above-normal temperature (Figures 1 and 2), while the UK Met Office model predicts a mix of below- to above-normal temperature (Figure 3). Model skill is generally good over most of the Maritime Continent for the below- and above-normal terciles.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, near- to above-normal temperatures are predicted, based on the multi-model ensemble. The NCEP model predicts the largest spatial extent of above-normal temperature over this region, followed by the ECMWF model and then the UK Met Office model. Model skill is generally good for the above-normal tercile and low to moderate for near-normal tercile over Mainland Southeast Asia.