Temperature

For April 2023, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, with higher chance over the eastern Maritime Continent, as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models predict above-normal temperature for much of the eastern half of the Maritime continent. Over parts of western Maritime Continent and Borneo, the models predict a mix of near- and above-normal temperatures. The NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1-2) predict a mix of near- and above-normal temperatures over Borneo, while the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts above-normal temperatures. Model skill is generally good over most of the Maritime Continent for above-normal tercile but low to moderate for near-normal tercile.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, all three models predict above-normal temperatures for the central region and a mix of near- to above- normal elsewhere. The UK Met Office model predicts the largest spatial extent of above-normal temperatures, followed by the NCEP model and then the ECMWF model over this region. Model skill is low to moderate for the above-normal tercile and low for near-normal tercile over this region.