Temperature

For March 2023, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the southeastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). For the Maritime Continent, the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) has the largest region where an increased chance above-normal temperature is predicted (including Borneo), while the NCEP and the ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict above-normal temperature only over parts of eastern Indonesia. The models’ skill for above-normal temperature category is relatively good for the Maritime Continent and low to moderate for Myanmar.

Elsewhere in the ASEAN region, the multi-model ensemble predicts below-normal temperature over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and near-normal temperature generally elsewhere. The ECMWF model predicts the largest extent of below-normal temperatures covering much of central, eastern, and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill is low to moderate for most of Southeast Asia for near-normal tercile category and moderate for the below-normal tercile category.