Temperature

For June 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over the eastern half of the Maritime Continent as well as the western Maritime Continent (Figures 1 -3). However, for the southern Maritime continent the NCEP model predicts above-normal temperature (Figure 1), while the ECMWF model predicts near-normal temperature (Figure 2) and the UK Met Office predicts near-to-below normal temperature (Figure 3). Models’ skill for above-normal temperature is relatively good for above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent. 

Models predict above-normal temperature over much of the Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 4). The probability of above-normal temperature varies across models, with the ECMWF model predicting the highest probability over southern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 3), while the NCEP and UK Met Office models predict higher probabilities over parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figures 1 and 3, respectively). The models’ skill is relatively good for above-normal temperature for most of Mainland Southeast Asia.