Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: July 2023
Issued: 28 Jun 2023
For July 2023, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the ASEAN region, with high confidence over much of the Maritime Continent and northern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For July 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with exception over the southwestern Maritime Continent where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted. All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. The NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict below- to near-normal temperature over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, and the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts below- to near-normal temperature over the southern Maritime Continent and the southwestern coast of Sumatra. Models’ skill is relatively good for predicting below- and above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for July 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for July 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.