Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: May 2018
Issued: 30 Apr 2018
Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model (Figure 1), above average temperatures are expected for most of the ASEAN region for May, except for northern Mainland Southeast Asia, Sumatra, and parts of Borneo. For these three regions, the May temperature is expected to be closer to near average. The NCEP CFSv2 model skill is generally good against both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA Interim (Figure 3).
The May temperature outlook for the NCEP CFSv2 model is broadly similar to other models (ECMWF, JMA, and UK Met Office), although the ECMWF and JMA outlooks predict the May temperature to be closer to near average.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for May 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.