Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: June 2018
Issued: 30 May 2018
Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model, above-average temperature anomalies are expected for most of the Southeast Asia region for June (Figure 1) with larger anomalies for central and northeastern parts of the region. Model skill for this region is good, apart from notably Borneo and Celebes Sea (Figure 2 and Figure 3).
Elsewhere (i.e. south of the equator and northwest parts of the region), the warm anomalies are more modest; hence near- to above-average temperature can be expected over these locations. Other models surveyed (ECMWF and UK Met Office) are broadly consistent with the NCEP CFSv2 predictions.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for June 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.