Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: April 2018
Issued: 28 Mar 2018
Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model (Figure 1), above-average temperatures are expected for most of the northern ASEAN region for April, except for the northern parts of Myanmar and the Philippines where near-average temperatures are expected. Temperatures are expected to be closer to average elsewhere. Model skill of the NCEP CFSv2 model is generally good against both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA Interim (Figure 3) for most parts of Southeast Asia.
The temperature outlook for NCEP CFSv2 is broadly similar to the outlooks from other models (ECWMF, UK Met Office, and JMA), especially with that of the UK Met Office’s.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for April 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.