Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: March 2018

Issued: 28 Feb 2018

In general, the NCEP CFSv2 model for March is predicting above normal temperatures over the region, except over Gulf of Thailand and parts of Borneo (Figure 1). Model skill is generally good against both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA Interim (Figure 3) for most parts of Southeast Asia except for the central parts of the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Other models (ECMWF, JMA, and UK Met Office) are broadly in agreement with the NCEP’s warmer outlook for the region. But the NCEP model outlook is more consistent with that of the UK Met Office’s and JMA’s than it is with the ECMWF’s outlook.

ncep_temp_t2m_ANOM_1 
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for March 2018.
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Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
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Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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