Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: February 2018

Issued: 30 Jan 2018

Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model for February, above average temperature is expected for eastern regions, while below normal temperature is expected for much of Mainland Southeast Asia, including Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and northern Thailand (Figure 1). Elsewhere the model suggests near normal temperature or no preferred tercile, with the exception of northern Myanmar where slightly above normal temperature is expected. Model skill is generally good against both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA Interim (Figure 3).

The temperature outlook for NCEP CFSv2 is broadly similar to the combined outlook from other models (ECMWF, JMA, and UK Met Office), although ECMWF and JMA have a larger region of below normal temperature, extending to Peninsular Malaysia as well as Java (Indonesia).

ncep_temp_t2m_ANOM_1 
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for February 2018.
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Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
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Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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