Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2018

Issued: 29 Dec 2017

Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model, above average temperature is expected for remote eastern and northern-western (over Myanmar) parts of Southeast Asia for January (Figure 1). Elsewhere the model suggests near normal or slightly warm conditions, with the exception of a small part of northern Asia (over Cambodia) with below average temperature conditions predicted. Model skill is generally good against both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA Interim (Figure 3).

The temperature outlook for NCEP CFSv2 is broadly similar to the combined outlook from other models (ECMWF and JMA), but the model outlook from UK Met Office has a higher probability of above normal temperature for the whole of Indonesia.

ncep_temp_t2m_ANOM_1 
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for January 2018.
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Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
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Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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