Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: December 2017
Issued: 28 Nov 2017
Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model, above normal temperature is expected in the eastern parts (over central and southern Philippines and eastern Indonesia) and north-western (over Myanmar) parts of Southeast Asia for December (Figure 1). Elsewhere the model suggests near average or slightly warm conditions. Model skill against both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3) is better for the near average temperature areas than for the above normal areas.
The temperature outlook for NCEP CFSv2 is broadly similar to the combined outlook from other models, although the predictions for cooler conditions over Southern Vietnam is evident only in ECMWF and JMA.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for December 2017.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.