Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2017

Issued: 30 Oct 2017

Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model, above normal temperature is expected mainly in the southern ASEAN region for November, and near normal temperature is more likely elsewhere (Figure 1). Model skill is generally good against both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3).

The temperature outlook for NCEP CFSv2 is broadly similar to the combined outlook from other models (ECMWF and JMA), although at least one model has a higher probability of above normal temperature for the central ASEAN region (UK Met Office).

ncep_temp_t2m_ANOM_1 
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for November 2017.
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Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
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Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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