Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: July 2019
Issued: 28 Jun 2019
For July 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most areas north of the equator. Elsewhere in eastern Maritime Continent, below-to-near normal temperature is predicted, in particular over the ocean.
For July 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – consistently predict above-normal temperature conditions over most areas north of the equator. The NCEP CFSv2 however predicts a considerable chance of below-normal temperature conditions over land regions between 10°N – 20°N.
For southern and eastern parts of the Maritime Continent, in particular over the ocean, all three models predict below-to-near normal temperature conditions with different likelihoods.
The models’ skill scores for predicting both above- and below-normal temperature terciles are generally good over most parts of Southeast Asia except for some parts of the region, for e.g. northern Borneo.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for July 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for July 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).