Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2024
Issued: 29 Dec 2023
For January 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region.
For January 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models, show high confidence for above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent. Over Mainland Southeast Asia, while the NCEP and UK Met office models (Figures 1 and 3) show above-normal temperature over most of the region, the ECMWF model (Figure 2) shows a mix of below- to above-normal temperature over the northwestern parts of the region. Models’ skill is moderate to good for predicting above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime region and low to moderate for much of the Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.