Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: December 2023
Issued: 30 Nov 2023
For December 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region.
For December 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models, especially the NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2), agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent, and the NCEP and UK Met Office model predict with high confidence of above-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia. The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts below-normal temperature over southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. Models’ skill is moderate to good for predicting below- and above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for December 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for December 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.