Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2023
Issued: 31 Oct 2023
For November 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region.
For November 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with an exception over southeastern tropical Indian Ocean where below-normal temperature is predicted. All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) has the highest confidence of above-normal rainfall over the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, followed by the NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2). All three models also predict below-normal temperature over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. Models’ skill is moderate to good for predicting below- and above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.