Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: February 2024
Issued: 30 Jan 2024
For February 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region.
For February 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent and most of Mainland Southeast Asia. The models are slightly less confident on above-normal temperature over the northern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent is relatively good, and moderate over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for February based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.