Rainfall

For NDJ 2019-2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal rainfall over most of the southern Southeast Asia. The likelihood for below-normal tercile varies among the models, with the NCEP (Figure 1) model showing higher probabilities than the ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) models. Overall, the models’ skill scores varies for this region, with the highest skill around the Java Sea and Papua.

There is no consistent prediction for much of northern Southeast Asia, although there is increased likelihood for above-normal rainfall for the most northern part of the region (northern parts of Laos, Myanmar, and Viet Nam). Models’ skill scores for this region are also generally low for the NDJ season, apart from over the Philippines.