Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: October-December 2019 (OND)
Issued: 30 Sep 2019
For OND 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of the southern Southeast Asia.
For OND 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal rainfall over most of the southern Southeast Asia. The likelihood for below-normal tercile varies among the models, with the NCEP (Figure 1) model showing higher probabilities than the ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) models. Overall, the models’ skill scores for rainfall are relatively good over this region except for northern parts of Sumatra and Borneo.
There is no consistent prediction for much of northern Southeast Asia, although there is increased likelihood for above-normal rainfall for select regions (e.g. Myanmar and northern parts of Laos and Vietnam). Models’ skill scores for this region are also generally low for the OND season.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).