Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: December 2019 - February 2020 (DJF)
Issued: 29 Nov 2019
For DJF 2019-2020, no strong signal for below- or above-normal conditions over land across Southeast Asia.
For DJF 2019-2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – show no consistent or strong predictions over land areas for either above- or below-normal categories. There is a slightly higher chance for below-normal conditions for land areas to the south of the equator but the skill across models for this part of the region and season is low.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for DJF 2019-2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for DJF 2019-2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.