Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: January-March 2020 (JFM)
Issued: 30 Dec 2019
For JFM 2020, climatological probabilities are predicted for the region, as there are no consistent predictions over land areas between the models for either above- or below-normal rainfall.
For JFM 2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – show no consistent or strong predictions over land areas for either above- or below-normal categories. There is a slightly higher chance for below-normal conditions for land areas in the western Maritime Continent and a higher chance for above-normal conditions for Sulawesi and Papua. The skill across models for the western Maritime Continent is moderate to high, while for Sulawesi and Paupa, the skill is low to moderate for this season.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.