Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: February-April 2020 (FMA)
Issued: 30 Jan 2020
For FMA 2020, below-normal rainfall is predicted for the most western and eastern parts of the northern ASEAN region, while the region just south of the equator may experience above-normal rainfall.
For FMA 2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict below-normal rainfall for the most western parts of the northern ASEAN region and the Philippines. The models also predict an increase in the probability of above-normal rainfall for regions just south of the equator. While the skill of the models is moderate to high for the Philippines and much of the Malay Peninsula, elsewhere the skill is low to moderate for this season.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.