Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: March-May 2020 (MAM)
Issued: 27 Feb 2020
For MAM 2020, below-normal rainfall is predicted for most of northern Southeast Asia, while the region south of the equator is predicted to experience above-normal rainfall.
For MAM 2020, two models – NCEP CFSv2 and the ECMWF (Figures 1, 2) – favour below-normal rainfall for most of northern Southeast Asia, while the UK Met Office model predicts no dominant tercile category (Figure 3). However, all three models are predicting an increased probability of above-normal rainfall for southern Southeast Asia.
For model skill, the region where below-normal rainfall is predicted corresponds to areas with moderate to high skill, while the region where above-normal rainfall is predicted corresponds to areas with only low to moderate skill.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MAM 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MAM 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).