Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: April-June 2020 (AMJ)
Issued: 30 Mar 2020
For AMJ 2020, below-normal rainfall is predicted for most of northern Southeast Asia.
For AMJ 2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – favour below-normal rainfall for most parts of northern Southeast Asia. However, the models differ in the spatial extent and intensity of the drier conditions across northern Southeast Asia. Moderate to good model skill is limited to the Philippines and the seas around (e.g. South China Sea).
Above-normal rainfall is predicted over southern Southeast Asia, but models again differ in the spatial extent and intensity of the wetter conditions. Furthermore, model skill for this region is generally low.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.