Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: May-July 2020 (MJJ)
Issued: 27 Apr 2020
For MJJ 2020, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern half of Southeast Asia, with a slight increase in chance of below-normal rainfall for western Mainland Southeast Asia.
For MJJ 2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over southern Southeast Asia, but models again differ in the spatial extent and intensity of the wetter conditions. The skill is moderate to high for most of this region, apart from over northern Sumatra.
Below-normal rainfall conditions are predicted by all three models for most parts of western Mainland Southeast Asia (Myanmar, northern Thailand and northern Laos). However, the skill is low to moderate for this region. Elsewhere, the models show inconsistent forecasts or have limited skill.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MJJ 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MJJ 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).