Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: June-August 2020 (JJA)
Issued: 28 May 2020
For JJA 2020, above-normal rainfall is predicted for regions around the equator. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, predictions across models are either not consistent or have poor skill.
For JJA 2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over the equatorial region of Southeast Asia (between 10°N and 10°S), with better agreement across models over parts of Borneo and Java. Outside of the equatorial region, models have less agreement on the dominant rainfall tercile.
For the regions above that are predicted to have above-normal conditions, model skill is generally good for the JJA season.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JJA 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JJA 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.