Rainfall

For MJJ 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model is predicting slightly below normal rainfall for Peninsular Malaysia and northern Borneo (Figure 1). This is in good agreement with the ECMWF and JMA models, although the UK Met Office indicates near normal to above normal rainfall for this region. The NCEP CFSv2 skill is low to moderate for the central region (Figure 2).

For the rest of the ASEAN region, there is no dominant tercile from the NCEP CFSv2 model, indicating the rainfall probability is close to the climatology. Other models consulted (ECMW, JMA, and UK Met Office) show good agreement for the eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and Peninsular Malaysia, although all three models predict above average rainfall for coastal areas of the Andaman Sea and the Philippines (Figure 3).