Rainfall

For JJA 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model is predicting above-average rainfall anomalies around 10˚N, in particular western coastal areas of Myanmar and the Philippines (Figure 1). This prediction is in agreement, with other models surveyed (ECMWF, JMA, and UK Met Office), although the other models predict more limited anomalies in both strength and extent. The NCEP CFSv2 skill, however, is only low to moderate for these areas (Figure 2 and Figure 3).

The NCEP CFSv2 model predicts near-normal to below-average conditions around the equator and southwards (Figure 1), where model skill is good (Figure 2 and Figure 3). Other models consulted (ECMWF and JMA) also predict below-average conditions over this region but the predictions vary in spatial extent.

Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly for JJA 2018.