Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: July-September 2018 (JAS)
Issued: 29 Jun 2018
For JAS 2018, all three models predict near-average to below-average conditions around the equatorial region (Figures 1, 2 and 3), the region where models’ skills have been shown to be good (Figure 4 and Figure 5).
Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model, the rainfall anomalies around 10˚N including the region over the western coastal areas of Myanmar and the Philippines are predicted to be above-average. The model skill over these regions is only low to moderate, and the prediction is significantly different from the other two models (ECMWF and UKMO) where stronger indications for near-average conditions were observed.
Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly of NCEP model for JAS 2018.
Figure 2: Rainfall anomaly of ECMWF model for JAS 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall anomaly of Met Office model for JAS 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.