Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: August-October 2018 (ASO)
Issued: 30 Jul 2018
During ASO 2018, below-average rainfall is expected over the equatorial ASEAN region, with near-average conditions elsewhere.
For ASO 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 (Figure 1) and ECMWF (Figure 2) models predict below-average rainfall for the equatorial ASEAN region. This band is less clear in the UK Met Office Model (Figure 3). All three models, however, have a consistent signal of below-average rainfall for Papua and the South China Sea. The skill for all three models is good for this region at this time of year (Figures 4 and 5 for NCEP).
Elsewhere, the model skill is low, or there is no dominant tercile from the NCEP CFSv2, ECWMF, and UK Met Office models.
Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly of NCEP model for ASO 2018.
Figure 2: Rainfall anomaly of ECMWF model for ASO 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall anomaly of Met Office model for ASO 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.