Rainfall

For AMJ 2018, NCEP CFSv2 model is predicting wetter conditions in parts of the ASEAN region around Philippines and coastal areas of the Andaman Sea (Figure 1). Other models consulted (ECWMF, UK Met Office and JMA) show considerably good agreement with this outlook from NCEP, especially for JMA’s and UK Met Office’s. The skill of the NCEP CFSv2 model against Aphrodite and ERA-Interim (Figures 2 and 3) is generally high during this period over central Southeast Asia (between 10˚N – 20˚N).

From the NCEP CFSv2 model, a band of below-average rainfall is also forecast over some areas around the equatorial region. While the skill of the NCEP CFSv2 is low to moderate over this area, below-average rainfall of varying intensities is also forecast by other models (ECWMF, UK Met Office, and JMA).

Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly for AMJ 2018.