Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: March-May 2018 (MAM)
Issued: 28 Feb 2018
For MAM, NCEP CFSv2 model is predicting slightly wetter conditions in parts of the region around Philippines and coastal areas of the Andaman Sea (Figure 1). Down in the south, the model is predicting for slightly drier conditions to be likely. Other models consulted (ECWMF, UK Met Office and JMA) show good agreement with this outlook from NCEP, especially for JMA’s and UK Met Office’s, but with varying intensities in the strength of the drier and wetter signals.
The skill of the NCEP CFSv2 model is high during this period over central Southeast Asia (between 0 – 20 N) (Figures 2 and 3).
Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly for MAM 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s MAM (Mar-Apr-May) rainfall forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s MAM (Mar-Apr-May) rainfall forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.