Rainfall

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: February-April 2018 (FMA)

Issued: 30 Jan 2018

Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model for FMA, a region of above average rainfall is expected to remain only over central Philippines (Figure 1), consistent with decaying La Niña conditions. There is an increased probability of below average rainfall for southern Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak (Malaysia), and Indonesia, excluding Sumatra and Java where there is no dominant tercile. Mainland Southeast Asia also has no dominant tercile. Other models consulted (ECWMF, UK Met Office and JMA) show good agreement with this outlook, except for Sumatra (Indonesia), where the models indicate below normal rainfall conditions.

While the skill of the NCEP CFSv2 model over central Southeast Asia is high during this period, the model has only low to moderate skill against Aphrodite over Indonesia (Figures 2 and 3).


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Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly for FMA 2018.
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Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s FMA (Feb-Mar-Apr) rainfall forecasts against APHRODITE.
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Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s FMA (Feb-Mar-Apr) rainfall forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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