Rainfall

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: March-May 2019 (MAM)

Issued: 28 Feb 2019

For MAM 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over the Philippines and around it. Models disagree on the extent of the affected areas. Over southern Southeast Asia, models agree on the enhanced risk of above-normal conditions but their skill is low for this region and season.

For MAM 2019, only the NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF models predict an enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall over the entire Philippines (Figures 1, 2) with the CFSv2 predicting the drier conditions to extend further west to Continental Southeast Asia. The UK Met Office Model (Figure 3) predicts below-normal rainfall only over select portions of the Philippines. Overall, the models’ skill for rainfall are good over the predicted areas.

All three models, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and UK Met Office, predict above-normal rainfall conditions over differing locations of the Indonesian Archipelago, but their skill is low over this region.

Elsewhere in the region, there is no consistent dominant tercile category predicted across the NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and UK Met Office models.

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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MAM 2019.
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Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MAM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MAM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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