Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: April-June 2019 (AMJ)
Issued: 29 Mar 2019
For AMJ 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over northern parts of Southeast Asia and the eastern Maritime Continent.
For AMJ 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal rainfall over northern parts of Southeast Asia. The spatial extent of the affected areas and the likelihood for below-normal category differs across the different models, with UK Met Office model being the least confident of three models. Overall, the models’ skill scores for rainfall are good over the Philippines, and low to moderate skill for the other parts of the region mentioned above.
Over the eastern Maritime Continent (near Sulawesi and Papua), all three models also predict below-normal rainfall, but with varying likelihood. Over this region, there are moderate models’ skill scores for the AMJ season.
Elsewhere in the region, there is no consistent tercile category predicted across the three models, or the models’ skill scores are low.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for AMJ 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).