Rainfall

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: May-July 2019 (MJJ)

Issued: 29 Apr 2019

For MJJ 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over parts of northern Southeast Asia and the eastern Maritime Continent.

For MJJ 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict a slight increase in the likelihood of below-normal rainfall over most of northern Southeast Asia. Generally, the probability of below-normal rainfall is lower for MJJ than for AMJ. The models’ skill for rainfall is relatively good over the Philippines, with low to moderate skill for the rest of northern Southeast Asia.

Over the eastern Maritime Continent (near Sulawesi and Papua), all three models also predict below-normal rainfall, but with varying likelihood. Over this region, models’ skill scores are moderate for the MJJ season.

Elsewhere in the region, there is no consistent tercile category predicted across the three models, or the models’ skill scores are low.

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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MJJ 2019.
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Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MJJ 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MJJ 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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