Rainfall

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: February-April 2019 (FMA)

Issued: 28 Jan 2019

For FMA 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over the Philippines and Myanmar. Over the equatorial region, models predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall, but there is some disagreement between models on the extent.

For FMA 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal rainfall over the Philippines and Myanmar. Overall, the models’ skill for rainfall are good over the Philippines and moderate over Myanmar.

Over the western equatorial region (Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, and Borneo), all three models predict near-normal to above-normal rainfall. The NCEP CFSv2 and UK Met Office models predict the near-normal to above-normal rainfall to extend further east (Sulawesi and Papua), while the ECMWF model predicts below to near-normal rainfall for this region. The models’ skill for this region is only low to moderate for the FMA season.

Elsewhere in the region, there is no consistent dominant tercile category predicted across the NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and UK Met Office models.

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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2019.
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Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for FMA 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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