Rainfall

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: January-March 2019 (JFM)

Issued: 27 Dec 2018

For JFM 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over southern Philippines. Over the equatorial region, models predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall, but there is limited agreement for this across models

For JFM 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal rainfall over southern Philippines. Overall, the models’ skill for rainfall are good over the Philippines and the South China Sea. Over the equatorial region (around Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua), models predict various degrees of chances for above-normal rainfall conditions but there is limited spatial agreement. The models’ skill for this region is only low to moderate for the JFM season.

Across NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and UK Met Office models, predictions for elsewhere in the region show no consistent dominant tercile category.

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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2019.
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Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JFM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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