Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: September 2019
Issued: 30 Aug 2019
For September 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of equatorial and southern Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have low skill.
For September, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for most parts of equatorial and southern Southeast Asia. The higher probabilities of below-normal rainfall are over inland regions. The skill is generally highest south of the Equator where all three models tend to have moderate to high skill. For those regions just north of the equator, the models generally only have low to moderate skill.
For northern Southeast Asia, the three models differ in their predictions, except for coastal areas of the southern parts of Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam, where above-normal rainfall is predicted. Notwithstanding, model skill for September over land in this part of the region is generally poor.
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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for September 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for September 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).