Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: October 2019
Issued: 30 Sep 2019
For October 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of equatorial and southern Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have less skill.
For October 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – continue predicting an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for most parts of equatorial and southern Southeast Asia. The skill is generally highest south of the Equator where all three models tend to have moderate to high skill. North of the equator (0-10°N), however, the models have only low to moderate skill.
For northern Southeast Asia, the three models differ in their predictions. For example, in most parts of Myanmar, both the NCEP CFSv2 and UK Met Office models predicted above-normal rainfall while no dominant conditions are predicted by ECMWF model. Notwithstanding, model skill for October over land in this part of the region is generally poor.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).