Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: November 2019
Issued: 30 Oct 2019
For November 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of equatorial and southern Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have less skill.
For November 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – continue predicting an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for most parts of equatorial and southern Southeast Asia. The skill is generally highest south of the Equator where all three models tend to have moderate to high skill. Near the equator, however, the models have only low to moderate skill.
For northern Southeast Asia, the three models differ in their predictions. The NCEP model predicts a higher chance of above-normal-rainfall for much of the region, while the ECMWF model predict mainly below-normal to near-normal rainfall, and the UKMO model predicts no dominant tercile for the region. The model skill for November is generally poor for much of Northern Southeast Asia for November, apart from higher skill over parts of Viet Nam and the Philippines.
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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).